Value Bets

Opportunities where our model probability exceeds implied odds

How Value Bets Work

Edge = Model Probability - Implied Probability. A positive edge suggests the bet offers value.

Kelly Fraction suggests optimal bet sizing based on edge and confidence. Use fractional Kelly (e.g., 1/4) for more conservative sizing.

Value Score combines edge, confidence, and expected value into a single metric.

6 - 2026

Latest

Player	Match	PredictedPred	O/U	Line	Odds	Model %Mod	Implied %	Edge	Value ScoreVal
Harry PerrymanH. Perryman	Carlton vs Collingwood	17.6	O	15.5+	1.83	71%	55%	+16.4%	0.10
Levi AshcroftL. Ashcroft	Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions	22.8	O	20.5+	1.84	69%	54%	+14.7%	0.05
Andrew BrayshawA. Brayshaw	West Coast vs Fremantle	28.0	O	25.5+	1.83	72%	55%	+17.4%	0.04
Luke ParkerL. Parker	North Melbourne vs Richmond	27.8	O	25.5+	1.85	69%	54%	+14.9%	0.03

Player	Match	PredictedPred	O/U	Line	Odds	Model %Mod	Implied %	Edge	Value ScoreVal
Harvey ThomasH. Thomas	Greater Western Sydney vs Richmond	-	U	20.5+	1.86	79%	54%	+25.2%	0.13
Connor IdunC. Idun	Greater Western Sydney vs Richmond	-	U	20.5+	1.88	84%	53%	+30.8%	0.13

Player	Match	PredictedPred	O/U	Line	Odds	Model %Mod	Implied %	Edge	Value ScoreVal
Bailey SmithB. Smith	Hawthorn vs Geelong	-	U	30.5+	1.87	79%	54%	+25.5%	0.06

Player	Match	PredictedPred	O/U	Line	Odds	Model %Mod	Implied %	Edge	Value ScoreVal
George HewettG. Hewett	Carlton vs Melbourne	-	O	25.5+	1.88	68%	53%	+14.8%	0.02

Player	Match	PredictedPred	O/U	Line	Odds	Model %Mod	Implied %	Edge	Value ScoreVal
Liam DugganL. Duggan	West Coast vs North Melbourne	-	U	20.5+	1.84	74%	54%	+19.7%	0.09
Tristan XerriT. Xerri	West Coast vs North Melbourne	-	U	20.5+	1.74	79%	57%	+21.5%	0.09
Jy SimpkinJ. Simpkin	West Coast vs North Melbourne	-	O	20.5+	1.91	73%	52%	+20.6%	0.08

Player	Match	PredictedPred	O/U	Line	Odds	Model %Mod	Implied %	Edge	Value ScoreVal
Daniel RioliD. Rioli	Gold Coast vs West Coast	-	U	20.5+	1.89	95%	53%	+42.1%	0.21
John NobleJ. Noble	Gold Coast vs West Coast	-	U	25.5+	1.82	97%	55%	+42.1%	0.16
Brady HoughB. Hough	Gold Coast vs West Coast	-	U	15.5+	1.84	73%	54%	+18.7%	0.13
Liam DugganL. Duggan	Gold Coast vs West Coast	-	U	20.5+	1.90	72%	53%	+19.4%	0.10